Original articlesThe Level of Alcohol Consumption at Which All-Cause Mortality Is Least
Introduction
Moderate consumers of alcohol have a reduced risk of all-cause mortality compared with nondrinkers and heavy drinkers 1, 2, 3, 4 because of a protective effect of alcohol consumption against coronary heart disease (CHD) 1, 5, 6, 7 combined with a harmful effect on other diseases. Knowledge of the level of alcohol consumption associated with the lowest mortality is important in formulating public health messages [8], but no quantitative overview of the evidence has been performed.
Some authors have said that such an overview is not possible in view of the different ways in which alcohol consumption is measured in different studies and differences by gender, age, and country in the true relationship between mortality and alcohol consumption 3, 9. However, if quantitative conclusions are being drawn, then it is important to use the best available methods. This article aims to estimate the nadir—the level of alcohol consumption at which mortality is minimized—for each study separately and then to estimate an overall nadir allowing for differences by gender, age, and country.
Section snippets
Methods
MEDLINE was searched for papers published up until the end of 1995 whose titles contained both (1) “alcohol”, “drinking”, “beer”, “wine”, or “spirits” and (2) “mortality”, “death”, or “coronary heart disease”. This yielded reports from 29 cohort studies in developed countries that related all-cause mortality to amount of alcohol consumed. Studies were excluded if mortality was not reported for men and women separately 10, 11 or if fewer than three groups of alcohol consumption were reported
Results
Table 1 lists the 20 studies and the main features of the analyses used. A total of 60,224 deaths were observed among men, and 74,824 deaths among women. The adjusted risk of death is plotted against alcohol consumption for each study in Figure 1. The horizontal scales are the same for all except the Italian study, enabling comparisons of the nadirs to be made.
For men, 12 of the 19 estimated nadirs lie below 10 units per week, and 3 lie above 20 units per week (Figure 2). The estimated nadirs
Discussion
This meta-analysis has estimated the level of alcohol consumption at which mortality is lowest (the nadir). If the relationship is causal and not biased or confounded, and if any subgroups with different nadirs can be correctly identified, then the value of the nadir is relevant to the formulation of sensible drinking messages.
Various techniques have been used to avoid bias and confounding. First, all results were adjusted for age, and all but five studies were adjusted for smoking and other
Acknowledgements
I am grateful to Simon Thompson and Paul McKeigue for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper, and especially to Stuart Pocock for many helpful discussions and ideas.
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