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Clinical prediction guide
A simple model based on wound size and duration predicted healing of venous leg ulcers at 24 weeks

https://doi.org/10.1136/ebn.4.1.27

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    Margolis DJ, Berlin JA, Strom BL.Which venous leg ulcers will heal with limb compression bandages?Am J Med2000 Jul;109:15–9OpenUrlCrossRefPubMedWeb of Science

    QUESTION: Can a simple prediction rule be derived to identify patients in whom venous leg ulcers will heal within 24 weeks using limb compression bandages?

    Design

    2 cohort studies—1 for derivation and 1 for validation of the prediction model.

    Settings

    Derivation was done in a retrospective cohort from a cutaneous ulcer centre in a university hospital in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. Validation was done in >20 US clinical sites.

    Patients

    260 patients (mean age 66 y, 61% women, 62% white) were in the derivation cohort, and 219 patients (mean age 62 y, 51% women, 70% white) were in the validation cohort. Inclusion criteria for the derivation set were venous leg ulcer in the area from the mid calf to 1 inch below the malleolus, past or current history of lower leg oedema that had improved with …

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    Footnotes

    • Source of funding: US National Institutes of Health.

    • For correspondence: Dr D J Margolis, Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Room 815, Blockley Hall, 423 Guardian Drive, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA. Fax +1 215 573 5315.