Evid Based Nurs 4:27 doi:10.1136/ebn.4.1.27
  • Clinical prediction guide

A simple model based on wound size and duration predicted healing of venous leg ulcers at 24 weeks

 QUESTION: Can a simple prediction rule be derived to identify patients in whom venous leg ulcers will heal within 24 weeks using limb compression bandages?


2 cohort studies—1 for derivation and 1 for validation of the prediction model.


Derivation was done in a retrospective cohort from a cutaneous ulcer centre in a university hospital in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. Validation was done in >20 US clinical sites.


260 patients (mean age 66 y, 61% women, 62% white) were in the derivation cohort, and 219 patients (mean age 62 y, 51% women, 70% white) were in the validation cohort. Inclusion criteria for the derivation set were venous leg ulcer in the area from the mid calf to 1 inch below the malleolus, past or current history of lower leg oedema that had improved with leg elevation, and other venous diseases. Exclusion criteria were ischaemic leg, life expectancy ≤24 weeks, recent use of …

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